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SUPPLY CHAIN

Thursday, 10 November 2011

Disruptions to supply chains major cost from Thai floods—AIR

The major cost from the recent historic flooding in Thailand is the result of disruption to supply chains and manufacturing with the automobile and computer industries particularly hard hit, according to AIR.


Flooding in Thailand

Reports suggest that up to seven industrial estates, housing close to 1000 manufacturing plants and employing approximately 460,000 people, have been out of use for several weeks.

Some companies are estimating it will take up to six weeks to restart production, while others are considering closing their operations altogether.

According to AIR, flood insurance is prevalent in these industrial parks and the brunt of this loss will be borne by the insurance industry.

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Two of the world’s largest car manufacturers, Honda and Toyota, have had severe disruption to their manufacturing processes, not just in Thailand but worldwide, due to a lack of parts.

Thailand is responsible for the manufacturing of about a quarter of all computer hard disk drives produced for the global computing industry. The latest round of flooding has raised fears of a global supply shortage of hard disk drives in the run-up to the lucrative Christmas period. Prices of the devices are reported to have increased by up to 180%.

At the start of this year’s monsoon season in late July, Tropical Storm Nock-Ten brought high precipitation levels that swelled the Yom and Nan rivers in the north of Thailand, forcing the evacuation of 650,000 people.

Since then, persistently heavy rains have caused serious flooding throughout the country, killing more than 500 people and severely affecting up to an estimated three million more in what have been the most severe floods in 50 years for the region.

Current predictions are divided as to whether the defenses protecting central Bangkok, including the main business district, will hold over the coming days.

Also, the long-term economic impact of this event is set to be far reaching and no reliable estimates can yet be made as to the impact the flooding will have on the global economy. The Bank of Thailand has cut their projected 2011 national economic growth forecast from 4.1% down to 2.6%.

The Thai government has set aside an initial budget of THB 100bn ($3.3bn) to begin the rebuilding process. Infrastructure and transport links have also been heavily affected, although Bangkok’s sky-train and subway have not been damaged.

In addition, power outages, a shortage of food and concerns about sanitation complicate recovery efforts in the affected areas.

Accumulated monthly rainfall totals in August and September exceeded 300mm in vast portions of the country, reaching more than one metre in some isolated areas.

Flooding was at first confined to the north and northeast of the country but has steadily moved further into the central plains. As the monsoon season continued, the Bhumibol and Sirikit dams in northern Thailand reached their capacity, forcing authorities to increase their discharge rates at the start of October.

This further raised water levels downstream in the southern central plain and into Bangkok. Failure of flood barriers in the north of the city and the continued accumulation of floodwaters from the north, having been backed up by a period of high tide, has meant that flooding to some districts in the capital was unavoidable.

As of 7 November, 12 of the 50 districts of the capital were on the evacuation list with a further 7 subdistricts on partial notice. The commercial heart of the city, however, remains dry at present. Officials estimate that flood conditions in the Bangkok area are likely to continue for several more weeks.

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