Thursday, 19 January 2012
Broker focuses on risks of Iranian nuclear plans
JLT’s World Risk Review has published its latest risk report on Iran, entitled Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The report focuses on the regime’s nuclear programme, including a detailed analysis of the country’s apparent efforts to build a bomb and the implications for the West and the Middle East region.
The World Risk Review report assesses the current state of play and introduces the complex implications of Iran's ambitions to become a nuclear power, setting out the stakes for the various parties involved, including the wider Middle East region, the US, EU, Israel, Russia and China.
Elizabeth Stephens, Head of Credit and Political Risk Analysis for JLT, said: "Iran's refusal to halt uranium enrichment, alongside recent displays of military strength in the Persian Gulf, support the conclusion of most US government officials who no longer expect the regime to buckle under the pressure of sanctions. Iran clearly perceives the benefits of becoming a nuclear power outweigh the costs."
"Though Iran appears set on its course to become a nuclear power, the environment for investors is considerably less certain. For instance, the latest US sanctions targeting Iran's central bank will effectively blacklist its investors from doing business with the US. Consequently, country economic risk and currency incontrovertibility and transfer risk remain key concerns," she added.
The stance being taken by reinsurers in the run-up to renewals is usually a good indication of what might be in store for underlying insureds. As such the Baden-Baden reinsurance meeting, held towards the end of October, is usually considered a bellwether for European corporations thinking about how much their own big risk programmes are going to cost.